A situation is uncertain. Political elites fear the "orange revolution", and keep a close eye on the opposition. The opposition is aware that it won't be able to grip power during the elections or by organizing a riot that is why it uses the last leverage left in its disposal. We are talking about the tactics of foul (series of smooth blows are planned to attract attention). On the one hand the opposition fertilizes the soil for future negotiations with the elites; on the other hand it seeks to create an image of the democratic Pro Western power. This stance plays in hands of the state which pursues the same goal, since it also tries to ensure the birth of the civilized and modern political system. The opposition is aware that it won't gain power via revolution. Opponents of the current regime defend their personal interests and are not ready to quarrel with the political elites.

The relations of politicians in both camps are their personal matter. The public votes for stability. It is really crucial for the Kazakhstani society as the rival sides may cross the threshold. In this case the fight without rules will begin. The aftermath is predictable. Fortunately for us the opposition and the pro-regime officials don't try to drive each other into a corner.

Pundits predict a landslide victory to the incumbent president. If the opposition had had a slightest chance to win there would have been quite a different election campaign. The bright prospect of getting power makes heroes from coward hares. This time the goddess of fortune averted her face from the opposition. Today, politicians who oppose the regime have to revise their policies. They try to retain as much publicity as possible. The Western public and main sponsors mustn't ever forget that there is the opposition in Kazakhstan. That is why the president's contenders have chosen a style of fouls. The opposition hinders the work of elites in power, tries to discredit the government and make nervous local authorities, provoking scandals.

The opposition uses good and foul means to attract attention of voters. Before the beginning of election campaign the opposition supported people who seized lands in the suburbs of the Southern capital, brought a case against the president, after his speech on the current state borders of Kazakhstan. During the election campaign the opposition began to feed the public with the downright populist pledges, and created the brouhaha around the tragic death of Zumambek Nurkadilov. The opposition also addressed the mass media, accusing the government in kidnapping. Somebody called Oksana Nikitina or Nikitenko was mentioned by Zhurmahan Tuyakbay. Meanwhile, the opposition avoids making clumsy movements. For example Zhurmahan Tuyakbay surprised many of his supporters by giving a high appraisal to the incumbent president.

The most radically minded opposition leaders nearly broke off their activity. Bulat Abilov is not seen on the political scene. This politician gained popularity after his visit to Ukraine. In one of his speeches he likened the Shimkent hooliganism to the Adijan events. It was quite a far- fetched parallel. People who still are able to think can distinguish the difference. In his desire to look eloquent Abilov forgets everything and delivers quite awkward ideas to his audience t. Bulat Abilov is the most famous public figure in the opposition camp. If we compare this man to the leaders of French revolutions we will see several common features with the "enragee jacobins" led by Jak Rue. But revolution will unlikely break out in Kazakhstan, that is why there is no any need in such revolutionaries as Abilov. Conservatism prevails in the opposition camp.

Nothing extraordinary is expected to happen on the ballot day. The state and the society aren't interested in destabilization. Any election campaign with all its sheer propaganda as if taken from the Old Soviet Communist leaflets isn't able to influence a conservative mood of people. Kazakhstani public has something to lose and it will vote for the status quo. But Kazakhstani people fear the future. We enter a new era. Are we ready to face new tasks and pitfalls?

Competitive environment

Kazakhstan is far from being a democracy. There is no a real competition between different political powers that are to represent interests of voters. This time the election campaign wasn't focused on the eternal confrontation between communists and capitalists. Neither the opposition nor the elites in power are going to reestablish the Soviet Union or embrace values of socialism. Both camps adhere the ideals of market economy and progress. The opposition wants to precipitate the process of political liberalization, introduce the institute of akims that are to be elected and strengthen the role of parliament. The political elites in power propose not to hurry with reforms.

The emergence of alternative way of development due to competitive environment is the most desirable scenario for Kazakhstan. Unfortunately, the opposition is not eager at the idea of being involved into a discussion. The leaders of opposition prefer to pump their platforms with moral cant. Their eternal clash with authorities is marketed as the fight between the good and evil forces. The image of the politicians in power is undermined. The state is deeply corrupted due to the efforts of those who rule Kazakhstan today.- says the most famous politicians from the camp of the opposition movements. The opposition is on the light side and is ready to save us all as a good guy from the Hollywood blockbuster.

The opposition failed to inspire the electorate with its slogans. Even the "Kazakhgate" campaign didn't produce the required public resonance. Kazakhstani people have numerous problems to tackle instead of judging who is more corrupted on the post soviet area. For example ethnic Russians are more sensitive to another key issue: relations between Russia and Kazakhstan. The Kazakhstani society is indifferent when it comes to corruption. Any talk leads to an inevitable conclusion that all people tend to steal loot and cheat when they come to power.

Things look far more complicated if we look back at the early 90s, when those politicians who are the most zealous opponents of the president today, governed the country. It is strange that the opposition doesn't highlight the problem of corrupted officials in general. As a result the public makes the only possible assumption that goes as follows: as the old cock crows, so does the young. There is no difference between officials. Thus an average Kazakhstani citizen will give a negative answer if someone asks whether any changes take place in case the opposition wins.

The society feels when someone is insincere. The opposition should appeal not to morality but to intellect. The absence of sound, sustained ideas entails problems Kazakhstani political elites and society face today.

Kazakhstani officials managed to conduct economic reforms. Kazakhstani economy prospers if compared to its CIS analogs. Unfortunately we exported foreign experience to the Kazakhstani soil and implemented the Western model in conditions of the purely Eastern political regime. Kazakhstan can't boast many intellectuals who are able to generate new ideas. In this aspect Kazakhstan resembles the Wild West of the XIX century. Here is why: Kazakhstan holds sufficient black gold reserves, we have our own cowboys, corrupted administration, bands that rule the country, strange relations in the sphere of private property, but at the same time our country lacks trained intellectuals and experts. Intellectual environment hasn't been formed yet. We are not able to solve the problems independently relying on our own intellectual potential.

Kazakhstani experts, officials, authorities prefer to copy thoughts and ideas of their foreign counterparts. Local intellectuals gradually lose their ability to think. Trivial plagiarism is the integral feature of the intellectual process on the market of ideas and in the circle of Kazakhstani scholars. The Kazkahstani government hired a group of Harvard think tanks and asked its consultation from time to time.

It seemed that the opposition could fill the vacuum and bring new ideas concerning the future development of Kazakhstan. It could provide its own strategic vision on the subject and answer such questions as: What position Kazakhstan has to take at the international arena? What are the alternative ways of development for our state? The opposition concentrated on the purely tactical maneuvers instead. Alas! Moreover, the analysis of the platforms of the opposition shows that our country will have to live through the hard times in case Zhurmahan Tuyakbay or Abilov wins.

The differences between the pledges given and issues raised by Alihan Baimenov and Zharmahan Tuyakbay (the main candidates from the opposition parties) are small. The platforms of two candidates have several common features. They are: populist pledges , the state -governed capitalism and adherence to the liberal economic course. Baimenov doesn't criticize the past . He is not that generous in giving pledges. Baimenov is aware that all populist ideas have to be backed by something material. He promises to lower the retirement age and increase pensions by 60%, at the same time he plans the tax relief. In accordance with his scheme the VAT is to be cut by 1% and corporate income tax by 7%. Baimenov can be regarded as the advocate of the moderate state-controlled capitalism. He pledges to revise the Land Code and calls for the redistribution of land in favor of rural population and small households. In addition he wants to introduce the state regulation of oil prices.

Tuyakbay doesn't acknowledge any success achieved by the incumbent president and annuls the results of economic development of Kazakhstan. He constantly refers to the early 90s, and compares the status quo with the situation in the past. This position looks awkward if we still bear in mind that Zhurmakhtan Tuyakbay is sponsored by the US and positions himself as a liberal politician. Democratic theory says that economic liberalization is even more important than democratization. Tuyakbay's platform consists of purely socialistic issues and references to the state governed capitalism. It is practically inadmissible to compare the figures of the 90s (the inertia of the USSR economy reflected in all spheres of life)with those of the modern Kazakhstan. Tuyakbay says that since 1991 the car and other vehicles industries have been in decline. In 1990 practically all cars and vehicles assembled in Kazakhstan were in fact the war machines. Thus Tuyakbay is nostalgic about the times of the arms race between the USSR and the US.

The very fact that the representative of democratic opposition looks backs to the USSR times and proposes anti-market measures surprises many pundits. Let's enumerate some of the main points of the Tuyakbay's platform
- national monopoly on production and distribution of spirits
- distribution of 50% of oil revenues among citizens of the republic
- 50% of the receipts from the exploitation of oil reserves are spent on education, healthcare and infrastructure
- Redistribution of land between small households
- Dismantling of such institutions as the National Fund
- Abolishment of the currency reserve system

Zhurmahan Tuyakbay proposes to fill the Pension fund at the expense of the National Fund and the Kazakhstani gold currency reserves. Tuyakbay wants to pay out doles to the unemployed people until they reach the retirement age or find jobs. It is a sign of economic illiteracy of Zhurmahan Tuyakbay and his followers. Imagine what chaos the Kazkhstani economy will slide into if Zhurmahan Tuyakbay wins the elections. Probably Zhurmahan Tuyakbay just seeks to collect more votes but by what means! It is a sad situation since an eminent politician Oraz Zhandosov (the author of the liberal reforms) has joined Tuyakbay's camp.

All the pledges of Tuyakbay are designed for the definite group of Kazakhstani people, which traditionally votes for the opposition. Foreign policy as seen by Tuyakbay and his supporters seems to be the most interesting part of his platform. Tuyakbay believes that Kazakhstan has to choose only one strategic partner. " Deficiencies of the system character translated into efforts to integrate Kazakhstan into all possible structures"- says Tuyakbay. Then he enumerates these structures: CIS, SCO, ODKB etc. According to Tuyakbay we have to become a part of the European community. "Involvement of European and American companies creates the basis for developing ties of the strategic character"- says Tuyakbay.

Tuyakbay hints that the US has to be chosen as the best partner for Kazakhstan. Russia automatically becomes the main political rival of our country as Moscow plays the first fiddle in the above mentioned organizations ODKB, CIS etc. What then? Tuyakbay clarifies his idea in his passage against Moscow. "Gas is to be sold to the European countries at the world prices. On at dumping ones." Moscow buys gas in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and sells it abroad. The difference between a real price and that set by Kremlin is dramatic. But nobody opposes this pattern, as Moscow allows Astana to transport the oil through the Russian territory without imposing any tariffs. It seems that the US which allegedly adores Tuyakbay's foreign policies turns a blind eye to the economic theses of Tuyakbay's platform which contradict the fundamentals of the liberal market theory.

The lack of new ideas coupled with the political struggle is likely to exacerbate the post election crisis. Radical sentiments are brewing. When main political powers fail to formulate the problems let alone resolve them, the society splits in accordance with regional and ethnic characteristics. The rise of nationalism is the result of the political liberalization that hasn't begun yet. Kazakhstan has also live through the elections of Akims. Social indignation is mounting. A majority of people who are not satisfied with the status quo belongs to the ethnic Kazakhs. Disappointment may infect other ethnic groups. In the Eastern countries people are not inclined to cooperate. Each ethnic or regional group seeks to grip an absolute power and become the domineering elite. The consequences of such developments are rather predictable for the society we all belong to.