Under the constitution Ukrainian MPs from different parties have to form a coalition within 30 days in order to secure a majority in the Parliament. October, 3d was a deadline for that. If the parties had failed to come to agreement in a due time, V. Yushenko, the president of Ukraine, could have held early elections. A month ago the coalition comprised of the pro-president party our Ukraine and Yulia Tymoshenko bloc split. Since that very moment the political future of Ukraine looked more uneven then in the months prior to that incident. New coalition could have been built by the BYT with the Parties of regions led by Yanukovich. Yulia Tymoshenko's party could have swept early election.

The Prime Minister sought to outmaneuver unpopular president Yushenko who was too busy to pay attention to domestic problems, while devoting much time to foreign politics and the Caucasus war of Russia in particular. In case of victory BYT could have become the domineering party in the Northern part of Ukraine, where people traditionally are more inclined to believe that closest ties of their country should be with the West. Yulia Tymoshenko's pursued only one goal: dismissal of the president, Pro- Western political elites shared similar views and immediately volunteered support to Yuliya Tymoshenko . They even were ready to vote for BYT union with the pro- Russian party of regions, founded by Yanukovich. Despite the divergence of their interests both political movements have always dreamed to decrease president's powers.

In early September both parties voted for reforms in the domestic political model: if everything had gone to their plan the powers of president could have been curtailed. Ukraine had all chances to evolve into the parliamentary republic. At the same time in contrast to Yushenko Yuliya Tymoshenko toned down her anti - Russian statements.

It appears that in October, Tymoshenko changed her mind. Despite the stridency of her words, attempts to defame the president, by accusing him in illegal arms trade, and impeachment that might followed in case he found guilty, the BYT took the pro-president position on October 2-th and dropped its pro- parliamentary republic views. On October 3d, 2008 Yulia Tmoshenko said that her party had 10 days left to forge an alliance with some political power to avoid a chaos of the early parliamentary elections.

What is a reason for such a sudden shift in BYT policies? Why Yusehnko with 35% of people support managed to retain its perks and privileges and even win additional scores in the political game? Why Tymoshenko, a woman who had a brilliant plan that could bring her to power decided to relinquish the hope to win?

Things have changed dramatically for Ukraine when storm hit main world markets. Recent economic turmoil was a blow for the Ukrainian mining industry. At present, revenues from exports of metals account for 50% of those in GDP structure. Elections scheduled for late autumn might be held in the nervous atmosphere of the mounting disgruntlement of the public, especially voters of the Eastern, read, pro - Russian provinces of the country, the center of mining industry. Yushenko demonstrated perfect political instincts. Eventually, he managed to elaborate a brilliant strategy to supplant his rivals.

Tymoshenko was quite creative in her policies too. She had a gift in coalition building. She hoped that her alliance with the Party of regions might automatically result in the support of the electorate from the Eastern provinces. Her bloc even pushed the draft law, which obliged all Ukranian officials to learn Russian on hope to buy electorate from the eastern provinces into her case. She also counted on the support of voters from the Western regions of Ukraine. Her plan was flawless with only one exception. It could have worked if Yushenko had remained unpopular with the people.

In brief, Tymoshenko underestimated the president. He found fine arguments to weave a case against the BYT leader. He also succeeded in the search of allies. As a result, Renat Ahmetov, Ukrainian Oligarch preferred to side with the president and abandon Tymoshenko. Under Yushenko, Raisa Bogatireva, the lady from the Party of Regions, became the Security Council Secretary, she had to quit the party after her famous words that Yanukovich statement about the necessity to recognize independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was just his personal opinion and had nothing to do with the partisan platform.

Russia also was more behind Yanukovich than ever. At first, In August and September Russian media denounced Yushenko for his stance on Georgia and South Ossetia. Russian political elites bluntly said that the alliance of BYT with the Party of regions plays into their hands. Sometimes Russian media seemed to run into an extreme. They questioned legitimacy of the Ukrainian state and its right to retain Crimea among its territories. Correspondent of one of the Russian Federal Channel for example claimed that Contemporary Ukraine was formed from the regions of Russia.

Russia lost the first round of war of perceptions. Its repulsive attacks on Ukraine turned off even those people, who believed that Ukraine had to develop friendly ties with Russia and stay in the Russian orbit of influence, let alone Ukrainian nationalists. Ukrainians who held pro- Russian views were worried. They didn't want to risk their peaceful lives.

All these affected voters' mood and changed political climate in Ukraine. Tymoshenko plans didn't come to fulfillment . Yushenko still had a say in the Ukrainian politics. After making friends with Ahmetov and Bogatireva, Yushenko solved two riddles in his political quest: he weakened the Party of regions, headed by Yuschenko, who was famous for his pro- Russian sentiments and increased his powers. Moreover, Tymoshenko positions also were undermined. Her alliance with the Party of the regions turned out to be a tactical mistake. Yushenko is difficult to dismiss as his campaign now is rooted in the nationalist ideas he has to defend Ukranian identity and statehood.

The last blow to the party of region came from Taras Chornovil, the son of the famous Ukranian nationalist and descendant from the Western regions of Ukraine. The guy decided to quit. His presence was critical for the Party of regions. This political figure served a symbol that the aforementioned party advanced interests of the Ukranian state, not those of the certain territories. Pro- Russian approach of Yuschenko will add to his popularity in Russia but make his persona non grata in his home state. In closing, early elections can't boost Tymoshenko popularity therefore Ukraine won't become the Parliamentary republic in the foreseeable future.